Gradually improving
In the last days of 2023, activities at seaports will become busier. The need for sea transport for import and export of goods for Tet holidays helps businesses improve business results. Analysts say that the supply of goods traveling by sea in December 2023 will increase sharply compared to previous months, many businesses have increased capacity to meet new orders. Exciting import-export activities at the end of the year bring motivation to the seaport industry.
Previously, the Vietnam Maritime Administration informed that in the first 10 months of 2023, the total volume of goods through seaports has changed positively, increasing 3% over the same period last year, estimated at 624.559 million tons. Exports decreased slightly by about 1%, but imports grew stronger, about 5%. For containerized goods, the volume through seaports in the first 10 months of 2023 also narrowed the decrease to about 3%, estimated at 20.3 million TEU.
For most of 2023, shipping industry businesses face unpredictable business market developments. Many large ships have had to cut routes and route structure. Positive developments in recent months show that the shipping market is gradually improving.
In the first 9 months of 2023 alone, some areas have seen the output of goods through seaports increase again such as Quang Ninh increased by 4.8%, Ho Chi Minh City increased by 2.72%, Hai Phong increased by 0.8%. compared to the same period. Regarding the volume of goods, some regions recorded an increase such as Nha Trang (Khanh Hoa) increased by 16.86%, Nghe An increased by 17%, Dong Nai increased by 10%, Can Tho increased by 29%, Binh Thuan increased by 21%.
Commenting on the recovery momentum of the seaport industry, KBSV Securities Company said that the recovery trend will continue to take place in the near future because import-export turnover keeps increasing along with the recovery of consumer demand from the US. and Europe.
Transport and charter rates are estimated to recover from the end of 2023 and in 2024. Transport rates have returned to a low base compared to the previous period and are on par with the pre-Covid-19 period. so it's difficult to reduce further. Meanwhile, global freight demand is recovering as the world economy gradually recovers and inflation cools. In the context of increased demand, the supply of ships has not increased, and freight prices have improved, which are favorable factors for shipping businesses.
Many seaport industry enterprises also recorded growth. Hau Giang Maritime Services One Member LLC said that it is expected that by 2023, the Company will achieve a handling output of more than 1 million tons, 6,200 TEUs, and a revenue of 64 billion VND. High growth rate, in terms of cargo handling output increased by 32%, revenue increased by 20% compared to 2022. This enterprise expects to load the 5 millionth ton of goods before 2030.
For Gemadept Joint Stock Company (stock code GMD), the growth motivation also comes from continuing to welcome more new train routes and efforts to improve exploitation capacity, consolidating its leading position in the industry to attract investment. . Cargo output through Gemadept ports has grown steadily since the beginning of the year until now.
KBSV analyzed that the output of goods through the entire Gemadept port system in the first 3 quarters of the year was still lower than the same period due to the influence of uncertainties in the global economy and the sharp decline in consumer demand. , especially in large markets such as China, America, and Europe. However, container output through Gemadept port has grown steadily over the quarters, bottoming out at the beginning of this year. This recovery comes along with the recovery of import and export turnover from April 2023 to present, especially import turnover in the last 3 months recorded positive growth compared to the same period in 2022.
Freight prices recover, expected breakthrough in 2024
There is still room to increase port service prices when port service prices in Vietnam are significantly lower than other ports of the same scale in the region, 30 - 40% lower than port service prices in Vietnam. Thailand, Singapore... Therefore, analysts expect service prices at ports to increase by 5 - 10%. KBSV said that service prices increased slightly this year at 6% and is expected to increase by 8 - 10% in 2024.
Increased fares will help businesses improve profit margins and expect a breakthrough in 2024.
GMD, HAH, VSC are leading enterprises in the field of shipping and are currently listing shares on the stock exchange. The movements of these businesses are of interest to investors. In early November, GMD announced the transfer of all shares held in Nam Hai Port Joint Stock Company. This transfer will bring in money for GMD to focus on expanding Nam Dinh Vu and Gemalink ports.
KBSV forecasts that this business's revenue in 2023 will reach VND 3,921 billion, up 2% compared to plan; Profit after tax reached 2,781 billion VND, an increase of 40% compared to the year plan.
GMD said that Nam Dinh Vu port phase 3 will start construction in 2024. When all three phases are completed, Nam Dinh Vu will be the largest river port in the North, able to accommodate large ships and be a gateway. connecting to deep-water ports in the region.
Gemadept port system can also benefit if the Draft Circular amends Circular No. 54/2018/TT-BGTVT (Circular No. 54) with a proposal to increase container loading and unloading floor prices from 10 - 20% at ports. seaport approved and effective from January 1, 2024.
The revised Circular No. 54 is likely to have a direct impact on the revenue and profit of Gemadept port when all of this enterprise's ports are subject to the application of the floor price increase; In particular, Gemalink deep-water port in the Cai Mep - Thi Vai port cluster will receive an increase of up to 20%.
At Hai An Transport - Stevedoring Joint Stock Company (stock code HAH), a notable activity is that in December 2023, HAH spent more than 124.4 billion VND to transfer 51.54% of its charter capital. chartered Luu Nguyen Cai Mep Port Services Joint Stock Company, making this company a subsidiary of HAH. This is a company doing business in the field of warehousing. This move expands growth space for HAH.
In addition, HAH is expected to benefit from the recovery in freight rates. This enterprise owns the largest container ship fleet in Vietnam and continues to expand its scale, expected to receive 4 new container ships of 1,800 TEU in the period 2023 - 2024, bringing the total fleet capacity to 23,000 TEU by the end of the year. year 2024.
Meanwhile, Vietnam Container Joint Stock Company (VSC) is operating mainly in the Northern market with a system of seaports, depots, warehouses and transportation facilities in the Dinh Vu area, Hai Phong. VSC has a stable growth rate. Mirae Asset Vietnam Securities Company forecasts that in 2023, VSC's revenue will reach 2,038 billion VND, profit after tax is estimated to reach 152 billion VND. Entering 2024, due to business consolidation with Nam Hai Dinh Vu, the Company's revenue is forecast to reach 2,415 billion VND, an increase of 18.4% over the same period and profit after tax is estimated to reach 213 billion VND, an increase grew more than 40% over the same period.
According to an analysis report by Tien Phong Securities Company (TPS), the sharp increase in supply in the transportation market can be explained in the context of major shipping lines racing in the trend of greening their fleets to meet strict IMO regulations in the industry's decarbonization strategy. On the negative side, this will make the oversupply situation worse; But on the positive side, the number of ships being demolished will increase and help the market find balance.
For the shipping group, the outlook for 2024 will be more positive because global inflationary pressures gradually cool down and demand for goods transportation increases again. "However, we think that freight rates in the domestic market will be difficult to increase further when the number of container ships entering the market is expected to continue the increasing trend in 2024," TPS said.
